By Dr Syed Amir

DURING the weeks preceding the Indiana and North Carolina primaries on May 6, Senator Barack Obama’s campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination seemed to be floundering.

In the wake of his defeat in Pennsylvania, questions were being raised about whether he could win against the Republican nominee John McCain, whether he was tough enough to endure the rigours of the presidency or could draw the support of working class white voters who were sceptical of his patriotism.

The candidate himself looked exhausted, appearing less than self-assured in various television appearances. Some political commentators thought that he had been irreparably damaged by his past association with his firebrand former pastor in Chicago, Jeremiah Wright.

However, it all changed unceremoniously on May 6 when, exceeding all predictions, Obama overwhelmed Clinton with a 14 percentage points lead in North Carolina, while losing to her in Indiana by only a narrow margin. He has now amassed an impressive lead in pledged delegates, which is virtually insurmountable. Although the final numbers are likely to change, Obama has 1,847 pledged delegates as opposed to Clinton’s 1,686; a total of 2,025 delegates are required to win the party’s nomination. Obama needs fewer than 200 delegates to reach this magic number. There are only six remaining states where primaries are yet to take place, but none of them is rich in delegates. Even if Clinton received a lion’s share of their delegates, it still would not alter the final outcome.

In his victory speech, following the elections in North Carolina, Obama, brimming with new-found confidence and poise, redirected his sights to the upcoming contest with Senator McCain in November. He was gracious to Hillary Clinton and had only complimentary words for her, praising her tenacity and resilience. He will need all her support and goodwill in November’s general elections. Two days later, he made a triumphant visit to the US Congress, to be greeted by his Senate colleagues as the veritable nominee.

Clinton, however, is not yet ready to concede. Unfazed by a barrage of newspaper editorials and political commentaries that are pronouncing her quest for nomination as over, she has vowed that she will stay in the race until the end.

Nevertheless, the indicators are not encouraging. There are reports that her campaign is running out of money, and that she has had to loan more than $10m of her own money to keep it afloat. Realistically, it is difficult to see how she can resist for long the mounting pressure from Democratic Party leaders, urging her to withdraw in the interest of party unity, so as not to imperil the chances of success in the November election.

Regardless, Clinton and her staff are pursuing some new strategies, pinning their hopes on the results of two disputed elections in Florida and Michigan, where she won a majority. Both states were disqualified from sending their delegates to the Democratic Convention for violating the party rules about the dates they set for their primaries.

Initially, both candidates agreed to refrain from campaigning in either state. Lately, Clinton has been arguing for the legitimisation of delegates from both states which, if accepted, would put her in an advantageous position. In addition, she is attempting to enlist the support of the Super Delegates, a cohort of voters who are accorded this status by virtue of the political offices they hold, such as members of Congress and state governors. Some 270 of them are still uncommitted.

Unlike the Democrats, the Republican contest has been much more sedate. In early March, Senator John McCain vanquished his opponents, securing a commanding lead in the number of delegates, thus becoming the presumed nominee of his party.

Neither his age — he is 71 years old — his reputed fiery temper nor press reports of his alleged political favours to a female lobbyist, nor his embracing of many unpopular Bush policies seem to have placed him at a disadvantage. Meanwhile, he has been spending time raising money, preparing himself for the final match against the Democratic nominee.

From now until Nov 4, Obama has to overcome a number of obstacles. Clinton’s unremitting and withering attacks during the campaign may not be the only problem. The media continues to assail him for his past association with church pastor, Jeremiah Wright. The cleric has achieved undeserved fame for his vitriolic anti-American Sunday sermons which were widely disseminated on the internet. Obama initially dissociated himself from this toxic rhetoric, and was later forced to renounce both Wright and his comments.

An unrepentant Wright, capitalising on his new-found fame, eagerly appeared on various TV talk shows and lecture circuits in Washington recently, reminding the public of his past nexus to Obama. While the issue seemingly did not have a major impact on the last two primaries, it is bound to resurface in November.

Potentially more damaging than Obama’s past association with Wright, is the recent emergence of some ominous voting trends which might spell trouble for him if he becomes the Democratic nominee.

There seems to be a developing split of voters across racial lines, something that was not evident in earlier contests when Obama had rooted his candidacy in the transcendent theme of national cohesion. While drawing increasingly large majorities from African-Americans, Obama has been losing support of the white working class voters, especially those with lower incomes and level of education. Educated at Columbia University and Harvard Law School, he has been painted by his opponents as an elitist, remote from the concerns of ordinary Americans.

While the country is faced with problems such as an economic slump, the war in Iraq and a severe energy crisis, it is hard to imagine that people would vote for a Republican candidate again. However, presidential elections in America have often been decided based on the personalities of the contestants rather than party manifestos.

In order to become the first African-American president, Barack Obama will have to persuade the electorate to overcome their hidden racial and ethnic prejudices. Incredibly, a small, uninformed minority in this country continue to believe that he is a Muslim.