A dramatic rise in the worldwide cost of food is provoking riots throughout the Third World where millions more of the world''s most vulnerable people are facing starvation Paul Vallely

A dramatic rise in the worldwide cost of food is provoking riots throughout the Third World where millions more of the world''s most vulnerable people are facing starvation as food shortages grow and cereal prices soar. It threatens to become the biggest crisis of the 21st century.

This week crowds of hungry demonstrators in Haiti stormed the presidential palace in the capital, Port-au-Prince, in protests over food prices. And a crisis gripped the Philippines as massive queues formed to buy rice from government stocks.

There have been riots in Niger, Senegal, Cameroon and Burkina Faso and protests in Mauritania, Ivory Coast, Egypt and Morocco. Mexico has had "tortilla riots" and, in Yemen, children have marched to draw attention to their hunger.

The global price of wheat has risen by 130 percent in the past year. Rice has rocketed by 74 percent in the same period. It went up by more than 10 percent in a single day last Friday - to an all-time high as African and Asian importers competed for the diminishing supply on international markets in an attempt to head off the mounting social unrest. The International Rice Research Institute has warned that prices will keep going up. The buffers stocks of staple foods that governments once held are being steadily exhausted.

Rising prices have triggered a food crisis in 36 countries, says the UN Food and Agriculture Organization. The hike in prices means the World Food Program is cutting food handout rations to some 73 million people in 78 countries. The threat of malnutrition on a massive scale is looming.

The impact is beginning to be felt in the rich world, too. More expensive wheat has caused large rises in the cost of pasta and bread in Italy where consumer groups staged a one-day strike that brought pasta consumption down 5 percent. The price of miso, a fermented rice and barley mixture, is up in Japan. France and Australia have launched national inquiries into rising food prices and are pressing food producers and supermarkets to absorb price rises. In Britain, the price of bread is rising in line with the cost of wheat.

Governments have begun to negotiate secretive barter arrangements as the price of agricultural commodities leap to record highs. Ukraine and Libya are close to a deal on wheat. Egypt and Syria have signed a rice-for-wheat swap. The Philippines has just failed in a rice deal with Vietnam. All across the world, cereals, meat, eggs and dairy products are becoming dearer. "Food prices are now rising at rates that few of us can ever have seen before in our lifetimes," said John Powell of the World Food Program.

A complex interaction of factors has provoked the panic among dealers in international food markets.
Diets are changing radically in nations such as China, India, Brazil and Russia, where economic growth has boosted meat consumption. In China, it is up by 150 percent since 1980. In India, it has risen by 40 percent in the past 15 years. The demand for meat from across all developing countries has doubled since 1980. Because cattle and chickens are fed on corn - it takes 8kg of grain to produce 1kg of beef - the price has risen.

The new market for biofuels has raised grain prices. Corn is being used to produce energy and the market is anticipating hugely increased production in the coming decade. George Bush wants 15 percent of American cars to run on biofuels by 2017, which will mean trebling maize production. Europe has a set a transport fuels target of 5.75 percent from biofuels by 2010. As a result, the price of corn has begun to track that of oil quite closely.

The soaring cost of oil, which last week topped $105 a barrel for the first time, has another impact. It increases the price of fertilizer, and also the costs of food processing and transport. There is increasing concern about the rush to biofuels.

Lennart B?ge, the president of the UN''s International Fund for Agricultural Development, suggested that those opposed to GM crops should take another look at the productivity gains they can unleash and bring changes as massive as the "green revolution" of the 1960s, when crop yields in India and other developing nations jumped because of of better seeds, fertilizers and improved irrigation.

That change brought down food prices, freeing millions from hunger. If world leaders cannot come up with something similar again, the food riots could spread across the globe.

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