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Inflation jumps to new three and half-year high PDF Print E-mail
Saturday, 03 May 2008

REUTERS, NEW DELHI - Indian inflation jumped to a fresh 3-½ year high in mid-April, and analysts said it is unlikely to ease soon as price pressures persist and fiscal and monetary steps will take time to have an impact.

Data released by the government on Friday showed the wholesale price index rose 7.57 percent in the 12 months to April 19, above the previous week's 7.33 percent and outstripping market expectations of an annual rise of 7.38 percent.

The government and central bank have rolled out a string of policy changes in recent weeks as inflation has soared. In the latest move, the Reserve Bank of India on Tuesday raised the cash reserve ratio (CRR) by 25 basis points to 8.25 percent, its highest level in seven years, and said it was ready to act again if price pressures continued to build. Wholesale inflation now stands at its highest since Nov. 13, 2004, when it was 7.68 percent.

The latest rise was largely driven by higher prices of foods, metal products, and industrial fuels. Economists expect the central bank to focus on draining inflation-fuelling cash from the system, while the government moves to fix supply-side problems. "Across the board price pressures are there.

We are yet to see the impact of monetary and fiscal measures," said Shubhada Rao, chief economist at Yes Bank in Mumbai. "These pressures would continue. The RBI will continue to focus on liquidity management as a monetary policy approach."

Speaking to reporters in the southern city of Bangalore, Finance Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram said inflation would be contained but people would have to be patient. The markets remained cool to the data with the yield on the 10-year federal bond steady at 7.89 percent, while the rupee was at 40.64/65 per dollar, slightly weaker than 40.63/64 beforehand.

The Congress Party-led coalition, under pressure from its allies, also unveiled new measures on Tuesday to tame inflation and guard food supplies, slapping export taxes on basmati rice and some steel products.

Policy planners the world over are grappling with soaring food and raw material prices. But India, which has about 260 million poor, is especially sensitive to rising prices as food accounts for a much higher proportion of people's expenditure than in developed economies.

Fighting inflation has become a top priority for the government as it heads towards a general election due by May 2009 and a series of key state polls this year.

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