Political stability imperative

The Economist Intelligence Unit's country report, points to a year of economic instability which, although the report does not say in so many words, would be essentially due to the prolonged political instability. It points to rising inflation, depreciating taka, increasing trade deficit coupled with continued low investment, decreasing exports and economic growth. Although there have been recently calls for lifting the emergency, the report points out that it is likely to remain in place till such time that apprehensions of mass uprising following convictions of either of the two former prime ministers who are both in custody facing corruption charges are dispelled. The emergency would also be required, the report suggests, to implement the sweeping political reforms and would probably continue till the next general elections. The uncertainties continue with the fate of the political parties as well. There are assumptions that both parties would participate with new leaders at the helm in the next general elections since the two former prime ministers are likely to be disqualified following their conviction. The report also notes the failed and veiled attempts of the military-controlled interim government to exile the two ladies. The only certain prediction, however, and the report makes it with conviction, is that the political rivalry will remain between these two ladies and machinations of the incumbents would not see an end to their domination. There are indications that the economy will revive somewhat in 2009, although the underpinning assumption appears to be holding of the national elections and running of state by the elected public representatives. Furthermore, the country report notes that there is a growing concern among the urban middle class that an unelected government should not be running the country for an indefinite period, although there was wide support when it assumed power in January 2007. It is evident that economic stability will continue as long as there is political uncertainty. Till such time it is unlikely that investment would pick up or that the economy would genuinely recover from the current slump, an area where the incumbents have failed miserably. Already prices are the overriding concern which will continue climb further with continued inflation. The obvious means to bring an end to this dismal scenario is to ensure political certainty and stability.

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